Archive for July, 2010

What do Hedo Turkoglu and one of the summer's Hollywood blockbusters have in common? (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Round five already? This is going faster than Rick Pitino’s –

Nevermind. You get my point — each round of this mock draft is flying by. Henry at Weakside Help and I have already tag-teamed to knock down four rounds of this mock draft (head-to-head, nine categories, 12 teams, 13 rounds), with pretty solid results thus far, if I may say so myself. (That’s more of a nod to Henry’s work so far, given that he’s always taking a later round than I am.)

If you need to catch up, here are round one, round two, round three and round four.

While drafting a single rock-solid fantasy basketball team is a tough task in and of itself, trying to build 12 solid teams at the same time is much more insane. For each round I find myself attempting to see things from 12 different angles — the closest thing to schizophrenia that someone can experience in the realm of fantasy ball.

Regardless, I’m thoroughly enjoying the process and am eager to tackle this fifth round, the most difficult (and probably the most questionable) one for me so far:

49. Marcus Camby (joins K. Durant, T. Evans, A. Horford, P. Pierce): This team has plenty of scoring punch, so adding a nonscoring beast like Camby won’t weigh that category down much at all. While the eventual “returns” (yes, the quotes are very necessary) of Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla are looming as threats to his minutes, neither of those two big men can be trusted to play significant minutes for a while. Besides, Camby only played 31:11 per game last season and still averaged 7/11 along with 1.1 steals and 2.0 blocks. He should get plenty of playing time in the beginning of the season and should remain the anchor of the Blazers’ middle for the duration of the season — so long as he can stay healthy himself. While Henry expressed concerns about this team dragging down Durant’s pristine FT%, Camby’s dismal 58 percent average last season is kind of a fluke, since he only shot 1.4 free throws per game. Horford and Camby have this team in very good shape up front, while Durant, Evans and Pierce spread their strengths across the other categories. I’m a bit scared of what Henry will think of this, but I can’t allow a potential beast like Camby, who can easily put up top-25 numbers, fall into the 50s.

50. Kevin Love (joins L. James, B. Roy, C. Billups, J. Noah): Is there room for Love in Minnesota? If Michael Beasley hadn’t been dumped into Minnesota, Love would be an easy pick here. But with Beasley around, and with the Timberwolves committed to the manna that is Darko Milicic, Love’s path to fantasy stardom is a tad cloudy. Neither Beasley nor Milicic are capable of replacing the rebounding gap that Al Jefferson left behind, which means Love (who averaged 11 boards per game in 2009-10) could feasibly average 15/12.5, along with a dash of threes, assists and steals. Add to this the possibility that he has a good shot at starting and playing more than the 28:36 he averaged last season and there’s more room to go up than down. He fortifies this squad’s rebounding and strong shooting percentages.

51. Mo Williams (joins C. Paul, C. Bosh, J. Johnson, R. Gay): Like Antawn Jamison, Williams stands to shoulder a bigger load of the Cavaliers’ offense this season, thanks to the departure of the-one-who-shall-not-be-named. This should mean more minutes, shots, points, assists and turnovers. While his shooting percentage could dip, 18/4/6 along with 2.5 threes aren’t too bold to ask from Williams this season. One under-the-radar risk to his value is his spotty health record — he’s only played more than 69 games twice in his seven-year career (though his rookie season DNPs weren’t all due to injuries). Williams solidifies this backcourt and bulks up its threes and all-around numbers. A PF/C like Camby or Love would’ve been nice here (gee, thanks…me…), but maybe one of the other big men I didn’t reach for here will be around in round six. (Besides, having the long-anticipated duo of Gay/Love would have been too much to bear.)

52. Aaron Brooks (joins D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd, A. Iguodala, A. Jamison): The little man isn’t just known for busting out bold attire in postgame interviews — he’s known for launching on-target bombs from beyond the arc. Brooks averaged 2.6 threes per game last season, tying Danny Granger for the highest average in the NBA. While he’s known to go on hot and cold streaks, Brooks should continue to skillfully captain the Rockets’ offense. If Yao Ming does make a successful return to the floor sometime this season, that could mean more open looks and assists for Brooks, who’s only 25 years old. While I dig getting Brooks here, it’s not quite clear what this team excels at just yet, which worries me a bit.

53. Raymond Felton (joins K. Bryant, A. Jefferson, M. Ellis, M. Gasol): By now we all know how friendly coach Mike D’Antoni’s systems are for capable point guards. Even Chris Duhon thrived in this offense before he lost his soul. Felton, a huge upgrade from Duhon, now finds himself in a dream of an offense with a dream of a pick-and-roll partner in Amar’e Stoudemire. Not only is Felton resilient (has missed only 11 regular season games during his five years in the league), but he’s a decent all-around point guard who consistently steals about 1.5 balls per game. In New York, Felton shouldn’t have much trouble fending off Toney Douglas at the PG spot and seems set to reach numbers around 15/3/9, along with 1.5 threes per game. His shooting from the floor is always suspect, and that isn’t going to change this season. Still, a healthy guard in a potent offense is great insurance for Black Mamba and Ellis, and sets this backcourt in firm position to succeed. Little Gasol (great pick) and Jefferson can hold their own in the frontcourt, so all this team seems to need are some solid forwards to fill out its starting roster. I don’t see much missing here.

54. Jason Richardson (joins D. Granger, J. Smith, N. Hilario, D. Rose): Maybe it was that obvious empty SG spot that made me look for a capable player to fill out this starting five, or maybe it was seeing that the last three players aren’t exactly known for helping with threes, but whatever the reason, I’m convinced Richardson could be an absolute steal at No. 54 overall. A new swingman who seemed to open things up in Orlando is now in Phoenix (see below), and I expect that he’ll do the same for the Suns, which should mean more open looks and easier possessions for J-Rich. With Stoudemire out of town, there are now about 15.4 shots per game that need to be claimed, and I have a sneaking feeling that Richardson will take his share of those. He should also shoulder a bigger load of the overall offense, which could mean better all-around numbers. With Granger and J-Rich set to combine for 16+ threes per week, and with this team’s already solid steals, blocks and rebounds, things are looking pretty swell.

55. Kevin Martin (joins P. Gasol, R. Rondo, T. Murphy, Z. Randolph): Martin could easily go a few spots higher than this. He scores 20+ points with ease, is good for around 1.5 threes per game and kills it from the free-throw line. However, the guy seems as susceptible to hurting himself as Justin Bieber is (he hasn’t played more than 61 games in the past three seasons). That, along with the surging youth movement in the form of Brooks, Chase Budinger and Trevor Ariza makes it hard to believe that Martin has anywhere to go but down, albeit not by much. That said, he helps this team’s FT% and threes, while strengthening its chances with points. If he can stay healthy, Martin’s an outright steal here. (By the way, I love how three of these dudes could average 10+ rebounds per game this season.)

56. Hedo Turkoglu (joins D. Williams, B. Lopez, D. West, D Gallinari): Turkoglu’s recent NBA career reads like “Toy Story 3″: He started off in a fallen heaven (a defeated Orlando Magic squad), where he felt scorned and unloved ($), so he decides to leave for what he thinks will be greener pastures ($) but turns out to be the complete opposite of what he had left behind (Toronto Raptors). After suffering for a short while in that hell, he somehow manages to escape and now finds himself in a situation that appears to be even better than where he started off (Phoenix Suns). OK, if you haven’t seen the film yet (how dare you!?!?), the moral of the story is this: Phoenix is just about the perfect stage for the resurrection of Hedo’s career. Expect the offense to flow through him often (which is another reason I’m a bit down on Steve Nash this season), and his three-point prowess should serve him well on the Suns. Averages of 15/4/5, along with 2+ threes aren’t too much to hope for. The major concern for Turk is that he’s arriving to a Suns team that finds itself with lots of depth at the forward positions — he’ll have to fight for minutes with Grant Hill, Josh Childress, Hakim Warrick, Jared Dudley and Channing Frye. Nevertheless, at No. 56, that’s a risk I’m willing to take. Gallo (great pick at No. 41 — could give top 25 value if all goes well) and Turkoglu should give this team a strong foundation in threes, while the rest of the roster appears well-rounded.

57. Devin Harris (joins S. Curry, C. Anthony, T. Duncan, A. Bogut): I’m glad Henry got to choose his fellow Aussie. Bogut’s health concerns me, especially in the early going, but he’s a monster when healthy and paired with Duncan makes for a formidable (although a delicate) frontcourt. Harris is also a health concern but besides his low FG%, he offers really solid value at this spot in the draft. Don’t forget that he averaged 21.3 points per game in 2008-09. With the additions of Anthony Morrow and Travis Outlaw, the floor should be better spaced for Harris to maneuver around, which should improve his shot selection and bump up his assists. The key to his value is his frail body. If it can hold up for even 72 games this season, No. 57 overall seems like a  fair deal.

58. Anthony Randolph (joins D. Wade, A. Stoudemire, A. Bargnani, B. Davis): I couldn’t resist. My sensible side says Randolph’s frail body, questionable attitude and new surroundings make him unworthy of anything higher than a sixth-round pick. But the child in me reads how coach D’Antoni raves about the kid’s athleticism and calls him a “multi-position player” and gets very giddy. Jared Jeffries was a multi-position player for the Knicks, but he barely made left a mark. Make no mistake: Randolph is another type of animal altogether. To be honest, I was about to reluctantly scoop up Kevin Garnett here, but then I realized that all of KG’s probable averages this season are probably near the bottom of Randolph’s potential in New York. Tack onto that his sky-high potential and I just couldn’t justify not taking him now. Is it risky to take on two Knicks? Is it risky for this team to draft a bit high on three (Ant-Rand, Bargs and B-Diddy, in my humblest of opinions) of its first five players? Is it possible that Randolph could finish the season with top-30 value? Yes, yes and yes. This team is clearly the gambling man’s darling right now, and I love it.

59. Andray Blatche (joins G. Wallace, D. Howard, M. Ginobili, R. Westbrook): Here’s another slight reach. Blatche busted out a can of something awful on opponents down the final stretch of the season in 2009-10, so he’s on most owners’ radars by now. The downside is that he’s healing from a broken foot (though he seems set to be ready for training camp) and that the Wizards’ backcourt is much stronger than it was last season. No matter — Blatche might score less than he did in his magical stretch last year, but he should grab around 8 rebounds a game (thanks to the misses that carom off the rim courtesy of John Wall, Gilbert Arenas and Kirk Hinrich) and put up solid numbers across the board. The frontcourt in Washington is his for the taking, unless you consider Yi Jianlian and the inconsistent JaVale McGee serious threats. If he can get back into shape by the start of the season, No. 59 should be about right. This team’s frontcourt looks very solid, and steals and blocks shouldn’t be much of a concern here. Threes do seem a bit absent, but like Henry said, you can usually fill in that category with later picks in drafts fairly easily.

60. Jeff Green (joins D. Lee, S. Nash, C. Boozer, S. Jackson): He’s similar to Rudy Gay: he does a lot of things well but doesn’t do one thing great. Don’t get me wrong — Green is a solid all-around contributor for fantasy purposes. Since it seems best to ignore blocks for this squad, Green helps them in two categories that it still has a shot at winning: threes and steals. The one major concern is that his ceiling is already set, seeing how little he’s improved between the second and third years of his young career. Green rounds out this team’s starting five, which seems like a decent competitor in FG%, FT%, rebounds, threes and steals so far.

To recap, here are our 12 teams after five round of drafting, with grades that reflect how good they look to me so far:

Team 1: K. Durant, T. Evans, A. Horford, P. Pierce, M. Camby (A-)
Team 2: L. James, B. Roy, C. Billups, J. Noah, K. Love (A-)
Team 3: C. Paul, C. Bosh, J. Johnson, R. Gay, M. Williams (B)
Team 4: D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd, A. Iguodala, A. Jamison, A. Brooks (B)
Team 5: K. Bryant, A. Jefferson, M. Ellis, M. Gasol, R. Felton (A-)
Team 6: D. Granger, J. Smith, N. Hilario, D. Rose, J. Richardson (A-)
Team 7: P. Gasol, R. Rondo, T. Murphy, Z. Randolph, K. Martin (A-)
Team 8: D. Williams, B. Lopez, D. West, D. Gallinari, H. Turkoglu (A-)
Team 9: S. Curry, C. Anthony, T. Duncan, A. Bogut, D. Harris (A-)
Team 10: D. Wade, A. Stoudemire, A. Bargnani, B. Davis, A. Randolph (B+)
Team 11: G. Wallace, D. Howard, M. Ginobili, R. Westbrook, A. Blatche (B)
Team 12: D. Lee, S. Nash, C. Boozer, S. Jackson, J. Green (B+)

What do you think? Which team looks the best so far? Let me hear your reactions in the comments section below. Look for round six at Weakside Help sometime soon.

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If this photo of Tim Duncan with a basketball doesn't get you excited, I give up. (Keith Allison/Flickr)

If you haven’t heard by now, Henry at Weakside Help and I at — well, here — am going on a mock-drafting adventure. Here’s a quick overview: we’re building 12 teams in a standard nine-category league, round-by-round (for 13 rounds), in order to build the best teams that we can, while also drafting in an appropriate order.

So far, the first two rounds haven’t strayed too much from the script, which means some eyebrow raising is bound to be in store in this round.

Here’s round one (here at fBasketballBlog).

Here’s round two (over at Weakside Help).

Now for round three, where things start to get dicey:

25. Al Horford (joins K. Durant, T. Evans): Many of you might scoff at this pick but that’s probably because you haven’t been paying attention to this guy. During his three years in the league, Horford has improved his shooting from the field (55 percent last season), rebounds (9.9 per game last season) and scoring (14.2 per game last season). The big man also offers his share of steals and blocks (though it’d be nice to see him block more shots), rarely turns the ball over (1.6 per game for his career), and shoots well from the charity stripe (78.9 percent last season). Oh, and any slight risk to his value the addition of Shaquille O’Neal would’ve presented seems to be all but dead, since the Hawks aren’t ready to pony up the cash that the Big Diesel desires. Horford’s quietly managed to build himself into one of the elite center-eligible fantasy players available, and adding him to a team that has Durant and Evans fills out the roster quite well — seriously, name one category that this squad is seriously lacking in so far? This team is looking tighter than [name of your favorite celebrity crush].

26. Chauncey Billups (joins L. James, B. Roy): Mr. Big Shot always seems to hang around in the top 20 every season, and while there’s good reason to think his motor’s due for a sputter, it’s hard to let him slip much further than this. Roy at No. 23 overall scares me a bit, given a health record that elicits as many groans as M. Night Shyamalan’s name on any screen nowadays. But if he’s anywhere near healthy, there’s no denying his value at that spot. So, on one hand, Billups acts as something like insurance for Roy. On the other hand, this team is looking really strong in assists and threes. James’ somewhat shaky FT% is lifted by Billups and Roy, while Billups’ low FG% is lifted by LBJ and Roy. One through three are filled up pretty well here — now on to build the frontcourt! Or not. That’s for Henry to decide.

27. Joe Johnson (joins C. Paul, C. Bosh): JJ always seems to find himself around the No. 25 spot each year, and this season is probably no different. He’s pretty boring, in a good way — you know you can count on him for 21/4.5/5, along with solid percentages and a nice dash of threes. This team now has a rock-solid backcourt and a capable big man, and assists will abound. My only fear is that Johnson’s dreadful playoff woes will carry over into this season. Is it likely? No. Is it a scary possibility? Yes.

28. Andre Iguodala (joins D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd): AI9 is an all-around guy who, by all accounts, is thriving in Team USA’s summer activities so far. The two threats he’s facing is the addition of a similarly all-around guy in Evan Turner, along with new head coach Doug Collins. Iggy has top-20 talent written all over him, but he took a small step back last season, shooting a lower percentage from the field and scoring fewer points. While I’m not confident that he can turn things completely around this season, I expect that using a No. 28 pick for Iguodala could turn out to be a huge bargain. If coach Collins can figure out how to breathe life into the carcass that contains Elton Brand, and if Jrue Holiday and Lou Williams improve, AI9 could have a more efficient season than he did last season, though that might not necessarily mean bigger all-around numbers. Kidd and Iguodala pretty much cover all the bases, while Diggler and Kidd can lift Iguodala’s pedestrian FT%.

29. Monta Ellis (joins K. Bryant, A. Jefferson): I dislike Ellis’ frailty, and he turns the ball over like it’s his job, but I just couldn’t resist a backcourt of Ellis and Kobe. You want firepower? That’s firepower up your nose right there. Along with Jefferson, this squad potentially has three 20+ PPG guys. Points and steals are pretty strong here, while rebounds should also be aplenty. Sure, turnovers are almost a lost cause now, but who cares? OK, I’m slowly starting to fall back to earth…and I’m realizing that this could be one of the worrisome backcourts in this draft from a health perspective…and I’m also remembering that Nellie and his insane offense isn’t guaranteed to return in the fall…and I’m still not convinced that Ellis is OK playing alongside a stud like Stephen Curry…but I’m choosing to take on those risks with this squad. These three dudes could each put up two or three eye-popping lines every week. I see this pick as my one Twinkie for the month.

30. Nene Hilario (joins D. Granger, J. Smith): He played a full 82 games last season, which was a relief to see. While Nene tends to go on frustrating cold streaks, taking him here makes this team one of those dreaded reb/stl/blk monsters. Granger, Smith and Nene are each capable of averaging 1+ steals and 1+ blocks per game, and they’ll each grab around 5-9 rebounds on any given night. Also, Nene and Smith will lift Granger’s low FG%, while Granger can do his best to keep this team afloat with his insane gunning beyond the arc. This frontcourt is pretty menacing so far, albeit a tad fragile (Granger, Nene).

31. Troy Murphy (joins P. Gasol, R. Rondo): Murphy is underrated in most fantasy circles. A big man who double-doubles and knocks down around two threes every game should get more recognition, right? Yes, but his spotty health history has owners scared. The good news is that he’s played 72+ games in each of the past three seasons, which is great by his standards. Toss him in the pot with Gasol and Rondo and you’ve got a good handle on rebounds, and a decent shot at assists and steals. Also, Gasol and Murphy’s strong free-throw shooting makes up for Rondo’s mediocrity there. Murphy also gives this team a much-needed source of threes.

32. David West (joins D. Williams, B. Lopez): I agree with Henry that D-Will and BroLo (love it) are a very, very strong foundation. I saw two ways to go with this pick: branch out and try to cover lacking categories (points, threes) or bolster this team’s strengths — I chose to go the latter route. West, like Murphy, is an underappreciated fantasy entity that could easily go in the top 25 in most drafts. He falls lower than he should in many drafts because he has a boring name (no, seriously) and because he has a boring game that leads to boring stats. But, as fantasy fans know, boring isn’t always bad. With West on board, this squad has a good grip on FG%, FT% and rebounds. Williams gives any team a shot at winning assists each week, but this squad clearly needs help with threes. The good news is that this owner can now focus on needs without worrying too much about disturbing the stuff he’s got nailed down already.

33. Tim Duncan (joins S. Curry, C. Anthony): Ah yes, the king of boring himself: Mr. Duncan. Yes, he’s a stud in decline. Yes, his minutes have been falling for five consecutive seasons. Yes, he struggled during the second half of last season. And yes, he’s still a fantasy stalwart. Duncan can no longer be seen as a major health liability, thanks in part to his tightly controlled minutes — he hasn’t played fewer than 75 games in those five seasons of declining playing time. The man is a walking double-double, along with 3+ assists and 1.5+ blocks, and he averaged a career-low 1.8 turnovers per game in 2009-10. Let Curry and Melo deal with the scoring, threes and steals — TD will handle everything else. If this owner is apprehensive about Duncan’s production down the stretch, he can easily trade him for good value after the first month of the season.

34. Andrea Bargnani (joins D. Wade, A. Stoudemire): Call this pick what you will — Bargnani is a legit sleeper this season, if you can even call him that anymore. It’s no secret that with Chris Bosh out of town, the Italian big man is now the primary offensive weapon for a depleted Raptors squad. I mean, come on — the only other two players currently in Toronto that scored 10+ points per game last season were Jarrett Jack (11.4) and Jose Calderon (10.3), and this season’s roster doesn’t have many offensive weapons, to put it lightly. Averages around 20/8 along with 2+ threes and 1.5+ blocks are well within reach for Bargs. While neither Stoudemire nor Bargnani are monsters on the glass or on defense, together they’ll accumulate enough rebounds and blocks for this squad to compete. Is this a bit of a reach? Sure. If Bargnani shies away from what should be his leadership role on this team, will this pick make me look foolish? Definitely. But I’m willing to take that risk.

35. Manu Ginobili (joins G. Wallace, D. Howard): Howard (whom I would’ve waited a bit on, but maybe I’m too tough on the beast) and Wallace will bang out the big-man stats, while Ginobili brings a much-needed guard to this squad. He benefited from Tony Parker’s absence last season and turned in some monster lines, but unless TP gets hurt again (very possible), Ginobili is back on the pine to start most games for the Spurs. Nevertheless, he’s always efficient no matter how many minutes he gets and gives this team threes, assists and steals, which were all needs up to this point. He also brings this team’s FT% up to a respectable level (73 percent, if you use last year’s stats). While Howard, as Henry pointed out, is a portrait of health and fitness, Ginobili and Wallace make owners feel like they’re walking on egg shells. Alas, that’s the gamble I think this potentially well-rounded team should take.

36. Carlos Boozer (joins D. Lee, S. Nash): With Lee and Nash, you’ve got percentages melded down, and rebounds and assists have a solid foundation. Adding Boozer to the mix doesn’t hurt the percentages and reinforces the rebounding and assists (Lee and Boozer each averaged 3+ assists per game last season) for this squad. I’m expecting Boozer to take a step back this season, thanks in part to the post-big-contract effect, and thanks in part to Joakim Noah, who takes up more real estate in the paint than Mehmet Okur did. But with Lee and Boozer set to grab 20+ boards together each night and Nash set to dish out 9+ assists (yes, I’m probably not as optimistic as Henry and think Nash could be set for a slight decline in production this season), along with shooting percentages that are nearly unbreakable now, this squad should have an easy time looking for guards and forwards who can rack up threes and steals. This team’s weaknesses are in the steals and blocks columns, but there’s plenty of time left to fill in those gaps.

So, to recap, here are our 12 teams after three rounds of drafting, with grades on how good they look so far in my eyes (though through just 36 picks, it’s tough to discern huge differences among them yet):

Team 1: K. Durant, T. Evans, A. Horford (A)
Team 2: L. James, B. Roy, C. Billups (A-)
Team 3: C. Paul, C. Bosh, J. Johnson (A-)
Team 4: D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd, A. Iguodala (B+)
Team 5: K. Bryant, A. Jefferson, M. Ellis (A-)
Team 6: D. Granger, J. Smith, N. Hilario (B+)
Team 7: P. Gasol, R. Rondo, T. Murphy (A-)
Team 8: D. Williams, B. Lopez, D. West (B+)
Team 9: S. Curry, C. Anthony, T. Duncan (A-)
Team 10: D. Wade, A. Stoudemire, A. Bargnani (B+)
Team 11: G. Wallace, D. Howard, M. Ginobili (B)
Team 12: D. Lee, S. Nash, C. Boozer (B)

What do you think? Which team looks the best so far? Let me hear your reactions in the comments section below. Look for round four at Weakside Help sometime soon.

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Will you be shocked when you find out where LeBron is drafted? (Keith Allison/Flickr)

I’m of the mind that it’s never too early to participate in fantasy basketball mock drafts, so when Henry at Weakside Help reached out to me with the idea of partnering on a drafting adventure, I was amped — Robin Lopez amped.

Here’s the deal: We’re working with a 12-team head-to-head league with nine categories (FG%, FT%, 3ptm, Pts, Reb, Ast, Stl, Blk, TO) and 13 draft rounds. I’m taking the first round, Henry takes the second, I take the third, etc. Each round will consist of picking players in the order we see fit while making sure we’re building 12 viable teams as best as we can, sprinkling our comments along the way.

Got it? Good.

Without further ado, let’s dive right into the first round of our fantasy mock draft:

1. Kevin Durant: I hate to be boring, but toss me into the large pool of fantasy basketball fans putting KD at No. 1 in 2010-11. He was neck-and-neck to finish last season as the top fantasy stud in the land and now that his only competitor has seemingly made a decision to take his talents out of the running for the top spot, Durant seems fit to be plucked here without too much debate. Everyone knows that the kid can score in gargantuan (or is it Durantulan?) bunches, but he also kills it at the free-throw line. The only weaknesses he has are paltry assists and relatively frequent turnovers. Keep in mind that KD will be just 22 years old when the season starts, which means we haven’t even seen the peak of his powers yet.
2. LeBron James: It’s tough to definitively peg James’ value heading into this season. He’s no longer the clear top dog on his team, and while that has justifiably deflated his fantasy appeal in the eyes of many, no one should expect all that much of an overall drop-off. Will he take the reins of the offense and be the primary scorer, or will he be the main distributor of the ball? The latter is probably more likely, but don’t be fooled into thinking that would destroy James’ fantasy value. Yes, he might score fewer points, but that just means he’ll have more chances to focus on rebounding and dishing the ball, which could mean LBJ will be the closest he’s been thus far in his NBA career to averaging a triple-double for a season. Whether you’re talking real-life basketball or the fantasy variety, that’s nothing to sneeze at. He’ll go lower than this in more than a few drafts, but it wouldn’t be surprising in the least to see James end the season as the top fantasy stud in the land.
3. Chris Paul: The rumors swirling around his name lately make for juicy NBA discussion, but given the short list of potential places besides New Orleans for CP3 to play at the start of the season, along with the difficulty the Hornets will have in moving him, it’s safe to say that his fantasy value is cushioned from much volatility. His health is a concern to weigh when considering his value (he’s played fewer than 65 games in two of his five seasons in the league), but his strong all-around numbers make it tough to knock him too much for that. Paul helps you in every category save for blocks, and assuming he plays at full strength this season, he’s solid at No. 3. Many will take him at No. 2, which is understandable, but his health and obvious unhappiness with the Hornets, along with the team’s apparent lack of motivation to deal him, makes it tough to take him above the sturdier, maybe-on-the-verge-of-triple-doubles-on-a-regular-basis LeBron.
4. Dirk Nowitzki: His scoring and rebounding took baby steps back last season, but Diggler is as steady and predictable as they come, which is a great thing. He doesn’t hurt you anywhere and is one of the most efficient players out there. Nowitzki’s care for the ball (1.9 turnovers per game over 12 seasons) is an underappreciated part of his game. Sorry, not much else to say about this stud.
5. Kobe Bryant: During the suffocating hoopla surrounding James’ decision, how many bench presses, squats, miles and hours in the gym do you think Kobe put in? He showed signs of being human at some points last season (even missing nine games) but like Dirk, Kobe slaps up stellar lines like clockwork. With a Lakers squad that has somehow managed to improve itself in the off-season, expect Bryant to come into the season brimming with energy, confidence and focus, and ready for another season of dropping 26/5/5 on a nightly basis.
6. Danny Granger: He’s the only guy on this list that I’ve actually stood within four feet of (last summer at XS in Las Vegas, where he was playing blackjack at a table by himself), but that doesn’t mean he gets any favorable treatment. Granger is a mini-Durant, which just about describes his big-time fantasy potential. If the dude could stay healthy, he’d be a spot or two higher than this, but his frail body and growing fondness for hoisting up three-pointers without a conscience (which has dented his field-goal percentage) keep him out of the top five. I’d personally try everything I could to avoid drafting him, but if I had to, I’d look to package him in a deal ASAP.
7. Pau Gasol: The big man does everything but hit threes and seems to have figured out the trick to being a double-double machine. Many people talk about Andrew Bynum as a ceiling to Gasol’s fantasy value, but those two guys have figured out how to play with each other just fine. The bigger threat to Gasol’s value is his own health, which has been suspect throughout his career. But the chances that the shakier Bynum misses a bunch of games this season (which means huge lines for Gasol) more than makes up for that risk. Feel confident taking the best fantasy big man in the land here.
8. Deron Williams: His health is a concern, as well as the absence of Carlos Boozer, who was a great pick-and-roll partner for D-Will, but this guy’s still the second-best fantasy point guard, hands down. It’ll be interesting to see how his game will mesh with Al Jefferson’s, but there shouldn’t be much concern about that. Until we see otherwise, Williams is a lock for a double-double each night he’s out on the floor.
9. Stephen Curry: Picking the second-year stud here is likely to raise some eyebrows, but it shouldn’t. In fact, it’s easy to make the case that Curry could go higher than this. His shooting percentages were great, he hit a ton of threes, racked up steals and had solid all-around production last season. Maybe the biggest threats to Curry’s fantasy value are the questionable status of coach Don Nelson, whose free-flowing offense helped Curry grow into a formidable fantasy force, and the low ceiling for his touches/shots with Monta Ellis and a new, capable big man in town. If Nelson gets pushed out, keep a close eye on the situation. If Nelson stays, there’s little reason to think that Curry won’t make a good sophomore-year jump (though we’ve all come to expect the unexpected from Mad Nellie).
10. Dwyane Wade: Ah, our former top-five friend has finally arrived. Mr. Wade will likely see his points, rebounds and assists fall by a bit, but he could shoot above 50 percent from the field for the first time in his career, thanks to his newfound help. The interesting questions are whether Wade can focus more of his energy on ratcheting up his steals, threes and blocks, and if his turnovers will dip thanks to James taking a good deal of the ball-handling duties. His health is also a cause for concern, as he’s averaged about 67 games per season in his seven years in the NBA. If the Heat live up to the hype and destroy opponents, that would mean plenty of rest and a better chance at a healthy season for Wade. But that would also mean fewer chances to play heavy minutes and put up big numbers. As you can see, it’s a mixed bag for Wade heading into this season, so it’s tough to envision him going much higher than this.
11. Gerald Wallace: Last season was great for Wallace, who notched career highs in games played (76), minutes per game (41:00) and rebounds per game (10.0). He’s no longer expected to accumulate two steals and two blocks each game, but if he can keep up the rebounding and solid free-throw shooting while staying healthy, Wallace should have first-round value in 2010-11. If you’re skeptical about his health (who could blame you?), feel free to take a pass on him until the second round.
12. David Lee: The dude was a monster last season on the Knicks, and the good news is that he’s landed on the Warriors, a squad that might play at an even more reckless pace. As with Curry, if Nellie isn’t coaching the team, all bets are off and Lee could fall a few spots. Assuming Nelson stays as the coach of this team, and assuming Andris Biedrins continues to stink it up in Oakland, Lee should be in for another huge year. Now, if he could only figure out how to block more shots…

What do you think? What did I get right, what did I get wrong? Let me have it in the comments section below, and check out the second round at Weakside Help tomorrow.

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It's summer. Here are some links. (TheBusyBrain/Flickr)

Yes, it’s only late July, but there’s already some delightfully juicy fantasy basketball content floating around in the ocean that is the Internet. Here are some delicious morsels:

• Henry at Weakside Help recently put up a post titled, “What type of fantasy player are you?” Are you Mr. Average? The Dan Gilbert? Ms. Bo Peep? I’d like to think I don’t fall into any of those archetypes. It’s an entertaining read that will probably make you nod and remember names and faces that you’d rather not deal with until your drafts start.
• Doneycat at Tale of 9 Cats is doing some admirable work over there. First, it was another interview with Ken Slight at Basketball Monster, then it was an interview with Steve “Dr. A” Alexander of RotoWorld fame. I’m looking forward to who he interviews next.
• Give Me The Rock continues its fruitful summer with a fantasy basketball preview of the Golden State Warriors. (They’ve already covered the 76ers, Pacers and Thunder.)
• Summer League is over, so here’s John Cregan’s (ESPN) take on what real-life player attributes can translate into fantasy value, along with which players to keep an eye on in light of those scouting observations. (J.J. Hickson, Reggie Williams and DeMar DeRozan are among them.)
• Speaking of Summer League, Basketball Monster (wow, two appearances in one post?) recently posted its Summer League fantasy player rankings, based on averages. The top five, in order, are John Wall, Nick Young (who only played one game), Coby Karl, John Lucas and Ty Lawson.

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What do 'Inception' and fantasy basketball have in common? For starters, they're both cool.

First off, if you haven’t seen “Inception” yet, go and enjoy it. Yes, it’s hard to like the idea of seeing a film that’s been so sickeningly hyped and talked about for so long (paging LeBron James and the Miami Heat), but it’s well worth a viewing — or two.

While I could gladly go off on a tangent and offer my lengthy review of the film, then proceed to justify its relevance because this blog is, after all, focused on fantasy, I’ll take the higher road and instead take the foundational concept of dreams in “Inception” and use it as the basis for a fantasy basketball post. Don’t think it can be done? Read on.

Without giving anything away, the big premise of the film is dreams — diving into them (not just once, but twice, thrice and beyond), discerning them from reality, and stealing/planting ideas while in them. In fantasy basketball, there are many strategies and notions that seem to have taken root in many owners’ imaginations. Some are legit but others aren’t. Let’s take a look at some of these intuitions and tag them as either a “Dream” or a “Reality.”

1. Two-for-one trades are better for the side that gets the two: I’ve seen too many a team fall for these charming propositions. Don’t get me wrong — there are times when these can work for the team that gives up one to get two. For instance, if your fantasy team has suffered a big injury and you need to shore up your depth, a two-for-one deal can prop up your team and potentially salvage your season. But when it comes to trading away one of your first-round guys for, let’s say, a second- and fifth-rounder, you’re stepping into deep doo-doo. Yes, you’re getting more depth and roster flexibility, but you’re also taking on more volatility. Instead of owning a stud who only hands in a clunker every other week or so, you’re taking on two lesser players who are liable to stink it up way more often. You’re also taking on more injury risk, and you might have to drop a quality/promising bench player in order to make room for the trade. More times than not, the guy getting the one superior player usually ends up on the winning end. There are certainly exceptions — especially in deeper leagues where depth is hard to come by, or when an absurdly stacked team actually makes you an excellent offer of two players for your one that you shouldn’t refuse — but in most leagues, two-for-ones are dirty temptresses that should be ignored. DREAM
2. Punting categories can work: This is usually a bad idea in roto leagues, but in head-to-head formats it’s a lot more sensible. The turnovers category is usually the first one people punt or ignore, which is quite easy to do. It is, after all, a boring category that is hard to control. In fact, punting cats (oh, what an image) is often required if you want to forge a good strategy in an H2H league. Unless you’ve managed to assemble an incredible team, trying to win every single category in your league each week is borderline arrogant. Disregarding categories can definitely work — just be wise about which ones you choose to ignore and when, given your fantasy roster’s strengths/weaknesses. REALITY
3. A bad draft spells certain doom: Bad drafts can happen in a lot of ways — you somehow forget about your league’s draft and the dreaded auto-draft goes Isiah Thomas on your squad, you take too much time with an early pick and mistakenly draft the wrong player as the clock hits zero on you, or you just plain mishandle your draft. If you play fantasy basketball long enough, it’s bound to happen a few times. A lot of owners lose hope at this point, but that’s the way of wussies. The season is long, and most leagues will be rife with helpful waiver-wire pickups and trade opportunities that can quickly change your team’s direction. Oh, and other owners’ misfortunes can open big doors for your struggling team to limp all the way to the playoffs, where crazy things can happen. Of all my years playing fantasy basketball, I can only really remember a few solid drafts — the rest left much to desire. But that never discouraged me from maneuvering my way to the top of my standings by way of savvy (and, many times, near-obsessive) waiver-wire watching and trades. The draft is just the beginning, so don’t get too down if you have a bad one (or too comfortable if you have a good one). DREAM
4. Your last draft pick doesn’t matter: In every draft, there are one or more owners who like making a statement (e.g., by picking a player who hails from their alma mater), stashing away a severely injured player (e.g., Yao Ming last season) or giving everyone a laugh (e.g., Brian Scalabrine) with their last pick. While there’s no harm in this, it’d be wiser to use your last pick to grab a deep sleeper, even if it doesn’t pay off. Sure, it’s fun drafting DJ Mbenga in the last round, but that could’ve cost you the likes of Marc Gasol or Channing Frye last fall. Every pick counts. DREAM
5. 

   Put the gun down, Leo — that horrible draft isn't the end of your fantasy season! Going to all those Lakers games might actually help you.

   The waiver wire isn’t that helpful: If you’re in a very deep league, this might be true. But if you’re in a midsized league, the waiver wire can be the lifeblood of your fantasy squad. At the very least, even in big leagues, you should always have your eye on a couple players on waivers who you can pick up in case of an emergency. If you find yourself in a medium-sized league, helpful players will usually be floating on waivers, which is why that list of available players is so key. If you didn’t pay attention last season, you could’ve missed out on the likes of Andray Blatche, Darren Collison and Reggie Williams, to name just a few waiver-wire gems from 2009-10. A helpful habit is to keep an eye on trends in the form of performances during the past month and week. A player who’s been hot during both time frames is probably one to consider picking up if you have some dead weight at the bottom of your roster. Injuries are also key indicators of which available player is about to blow up. Sure, there’s a lot of junk out there, but put in just a few minutes of digging and you might find your diamond. DREAM

6. Many trades will require you to feel like you’re giving up too much: Let’s face it: we all tend to be selfish and cheap when it comes to fantasy ball, and that means we’re always looking for that next steal of a deal. However, unless you’re playing with a bunch of newbies, it’s going to be very, very difficult pulling a fast one on an opponent. This is why you’ll often have to feel like you’re giving up a bit more than the other guy whenever you propose a deal, or accept one in some cases. When you get this unpleasant sensation, it probably means the deal’s really about even. (A shout out to Basketball Monster’s Trade Analysis tool, which is often helpful in getting a sober take on what a trade will actually do for you.) This doesn’t mean you should actually give up a lot to get a lot less, but only that you’ll often have to feel like you’re getting the slightly shorter end of the stick in order to overcome the thief in you that wants to constantly lowball other owners. When you’re looking to trade for a stud, you might have to actually give up more than you’d like as an incentive to loosen the owner’s grip on his star player. In some cases, especially when you know one of your players’ stock is unsustainably high or when one of your players’ name is bigger than his fantasy value, this might be an easier task to stomach. As with many missions in life, feelings should not trump sensibility in fantasy basketball. REALITY
7. Rankings are king: Throughout the season, it’s interesting and useful to glance at each day’s player rankings, according to Yahoo, ESPN or whatever fantasy platform you may use. It’s a helpful way to approximate each player’s value, whether based on their total production or averages for any given period — especially since this is a common way to eyeball a player’s trade value. You’re probably familiar with scenarios where, for example, you’re offered a package of two players who are ranked 30 and 40, in exchange for two of your players who are ranked 20 and 60. On a purely rankings-driven thought process, this deal is a win for you — you’re getting a total ranking of 70 and giving up a total of 80. But, as most of us know, rankings are a tricky beast. Yes, they serve as a solid start for assessing players’ values, even in trades, but that doesn’t mean they’re the final say. Not only can rankings be misleading thanks to shooting percentages and inadequate samples (e.g., if a player hits all four of his FTs in a week, he’s a 100 percent shooter from the line — but does that really mean he’s a great FT shooter? or if a player like Terrence Williams is putting up great all-around numbers but struggles at the line, does that mean he and his sub-100 ranking are really not worth your time?), they also overlook categories. Getting a stud rebounder in exchange for one of your one-trick pony three-point bombers isn’t going to help you if you’re already stacked with rebounding monsters and in dire need of threes. Rankings are great (I refer to them very often) but don’t stop there. Go further and look at which categories your team is consistently losing and winning, and act on your instincts and do some research if you’re suspicious about why a scrub is suddenly a top-20 player this week. DREAM
8. Checking box scores is essential: Sorry, there’s no easy way out of this one. Even if you’re just not a numbers guy, keeping close tabs on box scores is the meat and potatoes of fantasy basketball — and fantasy sports in general. It helps you to pick up on trends and hot/cold players before your opponents do. Need more be said about this? REALITY
9. Team diversity is important: It might seem appealing to draft the two best players on a team (e.g., Danny Granger and Troy Murphy). After all, it seems like a good fail-safe. If one of those players struggles on a given night, the other player will likely pick up the slack and make up for the other player’s off night, right? While this may actually happen on some nights, there are multiple threats to this strategy. An unfavorable schedule for that NBA team, because of a lack of action or tough opponents, can put a big dent in your team’s production that week. Also, if the team those players are on either gets blown out or blows an opponent out one night, neither are likely to get major minutes/produce big lines. Of course, if you have a point guard/big man combo on the same NBA team who feed off of each other, you might be fine with having those two players rack up huge lines on most nights. Just be prepared for those two-game weeks, especially during fantasy playoffs. REALITY
10. Watching actual NBA games helps you win fantasy leagues: It’s conceivable to think that one could succeed in fantasy basketball leagues without watching a single second of an NBA game. After all, fantasy ball is based on numbers, trends and timely transactions, which can all be obtained via box scores, game recaps and helpful websites. However, there’s something about actually watching NBA games that has a positive effect on your ability to thrive during a fantasy basketball season. You get to see how players actually play the game, how they jell with their teammates, their body language, their off-the-stat-sheet weaknesses, etc. This helps you to see through statistical facades, which can help fuel better, timelier decisions. Then there’s the intangible aspect of just being in tune with the actual game this hobby is based on. Without sounding too mystical, there’s a real-yet-intangible divide between guys who enjoy playing fantasy basketball and guys who enjoy playing fantasy basketball because they love the game of basketball itself. I can’t say that one will always beat the other, because it’s not true. But I can say with confidence that loving the NBA and watching as much of it as you can will only help you navigate the rough waters of a fantasy basketball season. Plus, it’ll be way more fun. REALITY

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If you haven’t heard by now, there’s an amusing video of Minnesota Timberwolves GM David Kahn having a chat with Chris Webber and Matt Winer while watching the T-Wolves play a Summer League game. During this five-minute segment, Kahn calls Darko Milicic “manna from heaven,” compares Darko’s passing skills to those of Vlade Divac, and uses Webber’s career to make a point about Darko’s struggles. Hilarity and awkwardness ensue. Watch the video below:

Just for fun, here’s a poll for you readers: If C-Webb made a comeback to the NBA today, who would you take for your fantasy squad in 2010-11: Webber or Darko? Vote in the poll below, and sound off on what you think of the video in the comments section.

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